How often do relegated League One teams win automatic promotion from League Two the following season?

Bristol Rovers at the start of the season had a huge amount of expectation placed upon themselves to succeed in League Two.

After finishing bottom of League One in what was a fairly dismal campaign, only compounded to the misery of fans not being able to attend matches.

So when fans could return and take in a Joey Barton team for the first time, there was some hope that the team would be contenders for the league title.

And after making some impressive signings, such as Aaron Collins from Forest Green Rovers, Paul Coutts and Sam Finley, there was hope.

But a slow start to the season, left Gas fans wondering if Barton was the right man to lead the club forward, with the 39-year-old booed off in a home game against Leyton Orient.

Ever the optimist, Barton gritted his teeth and got on with the job, and despite at one point being 22nd after five games, he remained positive that he could take the club back to the third.

Even despite a 4-1 loss to Exeter City back in August, a viral clip is often used by Rovers fans, mainly to something positive such as a win or a goal, where Barton can be heard saying: "I know we’re going to get promoted. I have no doubt about that.”

So now with three games left of the season, Rovers are in a good position to deliver on Barton’s early season promise, either automatically or through the play-offs.

His team have had a remarkable run of form since the start of the New Year and have picked up 50 points in the 23 games they’ve played in 2022, which is half of a season.

Credit has to be given to Barton and his coaching staff for guiding the club through a difficult period and getting them to where they are today, as well as the players who have dealt with  being put together without experience of playing for one another and creating a team unity.

The task of bringing in 16 new players and getting them to gel into a side that the Gas fans can relate to is Barton’s biggest achievement to date, as he has helped repair the once fractured relationship between the supporters and the team.

But there still needs to be a look back at the past and how we can compare it to the modern day, especially on the success record of teams bouncing back from relegation at the first time of asking.

It remains to be seen what the mood would be like in the fan base if Rovers don’t achieve their goal of promotion this season and it isn’t something that is being talked about too much, given how confidence is high at the minute.

But remaining in the fourth tier also is a possibility and should they do so, then the hard work done this season could be undone. Key loan players like Connor Taylor, Elliot Anderson and James Connolly would return to their parent clubs whilst Antony Evans and Sam Nicholson’s long-term futures still haven’t been sorted.

So ultimately the best way to keep hold of their squad will be to get promoted, so what is the success rate of being promoted the following year after your relegation?

Funnily enough, the team that has finished bottom of League One has had the biggest success rate of bouncing back at the first attempt, with four teams achieving that feat over a ten year period.

There has been only two seasons where the four teams that have gone down have been unable to get back at the first time of asking. Rochdale, Exeter, Chesterfield and Wycombe Wanderers were unable to get back in 2013.

Then in 2016, neither Yeovil Town, Leyton Orient, Crawley Town or Notts County could take their place in the third tier again.

Right now, out of the teams relegated from last season, two of them occupy a play-off spot in Rovers and Northampton, whilst Swindon Town are knocking on the door but being five points adrift at this stage, makes it unlikely.

Both Rovers and Northampton are tied on points and separated by just goal difference, so it is clear that they have dealt well with their relegation last year and been competitive.

But the likelihood is that it could just be one team that bounces back at the first time of asking, unless one of them pips Port Vale and the other gets promoted through the play-offs.

There have been two occasions in which two relegated sides have been promoted. Doncaster Rovers finished bottom in 2016 and then a year later won automatic promotion in third place. They were joined by Blackpool, who were promoted in seventh place via the play-offs after finishing 22nd the year before.

That feat was then followed in 2019 when Bury, who had finished 24th the season before, were promoted automatically in second alongside MK Dons, who were 23rd last season and then third the season after. Unfortunately for Bury, they weren’t able to take their place in a higher division as they were expelled.

So then for Bolton Wanderers, who finished last place after the season was curtailed due to COVID, bounced back in the right manner, finishing third last year.

Only one team in the last ten years has won the league title when being relegated the previous season and that was Swindon in 2012. So whilst the league title is likely to fall in the hands of Forest Green Rovers, there is plenty of evidence to illustrate that Rovers or perhaps Northampton are well equipped for return to League One.

Number of sides promoted straight back to League One

2011-12 - 1 (Swindon Town, 1st)

2012-13 - 0

2013-14 - 1 (Scunthorpe United, 2nd)

2014-15 - 1 (Shrewsbury Town, 2nd)

2015-16 - 0

2016/17 - 2 (Doncaster Rovers, 3rd and Blackpool, 7th)

2017/18 - 1 (Coventry City, 6th)

2018/19 - 2 (Bury, 2nd and MK Dons, 3rd)

2019/20 - 1 (Plymouth Argyle, 3rd)

2020/21 - 1 (Bolton Wanderers, 3rd)