Bristol Rovers, Peterborough and Burton Albion’s relegation verdict confirmed in new final League One table forecast

Bristol Rovers salvaged a point in stoppage time to put and end to Stockport County’s exceptional five match-winning streak in League One following a hard-fought 1-1 draw at the Memorial Stadium.

Returning Rovers keeper Jed Ward made his first start of the season as he stepped into the shoes of Josh Griffiths on deadline day after being recalled from his loan spell at National League side Forest Green. Ward was called into action with a number of solid first half saves but was beaten by a 53rd minute strike from former Millwall striker Isaac Olaofe in the second half.

The Pirates struggled to take control of the game as against a promotion-chasing County team, but were clinical with their first meaningful shot on goal as Sil Swinkels got on the end of an in-swinging Matt Butcher free kick in the final minutes of the contest. The draw marks another impressive result for Inigo Calderon’s side at the Memorial Stadium after a vital 3-1 victory against Peterborough over the weekend.

The Posh, who have experienced a huge drop off this season, suffered yet another defeat at the hands of Charlton Athletic, while Shrewsbury settled for a point in their away trip to Reading. Elsewhere, Crawley bridged the gap between themselves and the drop zone by scoring two late goals in a vital 3-1 win over Stevenage.

But how do this week’s round of results affect OPTA’s final League One table forecast and will Bristol Rovers have enough to beat the drop?

The League One promotion race

Birmingham City responded to their FA Cup exit in dream fashion with a routine 4-0 victory over basement side Cambridge United. The Blues are expected to steamroll their way to the League One title at the first time of asking with an expected points tally of 104 points. The West Midlands outfit have been given a 97.06% chance of winning the title and an even clearer 99.96% chance of sealing promotion back to the Championship. Wycombe Wanderers are the most likely team to join them in the second tier in second place. They have been predicted to pick up 89 points and have been given an 83.82% chance of sealing promotion in some capacity.

Wrexham, who are chasing a third consecutive promotion are expected to drop the pace slightly and finish third with 80 points. They are however, the favourites to win the play-offs with a promotion likelihood of 79.32%. Stockport County, who were held by Bristol Rovers, are expected to join Huddersfield Town and Charlton Athletic in the remaining play-off places.

Who is likely to be relegated from League One?

Bristol Rovers’ commendable 1-1 draw with promotion-chasing Stockport was vital in the team’s chances of securing safety in this division. OPTA estimates the Pirates will exceed the all-important 50 point mark and gives them a 24% chance of survival. However, Crawley’s win in mid-week, means the probability of relegation has increased slightly from 21% to 24%.

Peterborough, despite a crushing late defeat to Charlton, are expected to have enough to avoid relegation, with Crawley, Shrewsbury, Burton and Cambridge all dropping down to the fourth-tier of English football.

Here is the full final positions in League One table, according to OPTA’s current forecast:

1. Birmingham City
2. Wycombe Wanderers
3. Wrexham
4. Stockport County
5. Huddersfield Town
6. Charlton Athletic
7. Leyton Orient
8. Bolton Wanderers
9. Reading
10. Blackpool
11. Barnsley
12. Stevenage
13. Lincoln City
14. Wigan Athletic
15. Rotherham United
16. Mansfield Town
17. Exeter City
18. Northampton Town
19. Bristol Rovers
20. Peterborough
21. Crawley Town
22. Shrewsbury Town
23. Burton Albion
24. Cambridge United