Stats experts reveal final Bristol City, Blackburn and Middlesbrough play-off spot verdict ahead of big finale
Bristol City are pushing for a play-off place finish
Premier League-bound Leeds United recorded a resounding 4-0 home victory over Bristol City to boost their title hopes while also denting the Robins’ chances of reaching the play-offs.
Liam Manning’s side knew a victory at Elland Road would have been enough to secure a top six place with a game to spare while even a point would have helped settle nerves slightly ahead of a huge finale against mid table Preston North End at Ashton Gate.
Simply put, the Robins weren’t at the races at West Yorkshire and were second best to Daniel Farke’s title chasing side in every department as goals from midfielder Ao Tanaka, winger Wilfried Gnonto and a double from forward Largie Ramazani secured the three points in comfortable fashion for the Whites.
It still leaves Bristol City’s destiny in their own hands, with them needing all three points to guarantee a play-off spot. Anything less, however, including a draw could open the door up to the likes of Middlesbrough and Blackburn Rovers, who have a superior goal difference along with Millwall after their run of three wins in their last four matches, including a 1-0 triumph over Sheffield United.
It promises to be an intriguing finale, and with that in mind we’ve taken a look at how Opta forecasts the play-off race to finish.
Who wins the Championship title?
With automatic promotion already secured for Leeds United and Burnley, the pair now have their sights firmly on the Championship title with just one game remaining of what has been an action-packed 46-game season.
The Whites have picked up an impressive 97 points from 45 games and will be crowned champions if they secure all three points away to already-relegated Plymouth Argyle at Home Park. Daniel Farke is experienced head in this situation, having twice led Norwich City to silverware in this division and will now hope to make it a hat-trick of second division titles, despite uncertainty surrounding his long-term future.
Elsewhere, Burnley are in second with 97 points from their opening 45 games. They have a goal difference of 51, which is below Leeds 64, this means that they simply need to better the Yorkshire side’s results to be crowned kings of the second tier. Opta Sport makes Leeds the favourites for the title with a 70.32% chance of silverware while Burnley are expected to finish second ahead of their clash with Millwall.
It also marks the third promotion of Scott Parker’s managerial career, having led Fulham and Bournemouth to the big time, via the play-offs and through finishing second respectively.
Can Bristol City secure a play-off place finish?
Bristol City last secured a Championship play-off place in 2007/08 under Gary Johnson and Opta is predicting history to repeat itself this season. On that occasion, the Robins suffered heartbreak at Wembley Stadium after a bullet volley from Dean Windass won the game for Hull City, and this time around the club will have ambitions of going one better and making it to the promised land of the Premier League for the first time.
The data experts anticipate a fifth place finish for the Robins behind third placed Sheffield United and fourth placed Sunderland - and state that City have an 89.14% chance of making the top six.
Coventry City have a 65.84% chance of finishing inside the top six and are expected to join Liam Manning’s men as they face Middlesbrough in a key final day showdown at the top of the table. Millwall, Blackburn Rovers and Middlesbrough are predicted to finish just outside of the play-offs along with West Bromwich Albion, whose destiny has already been determined following Tony Mowbray’s exit from the Hawthorns Stadium.
Blackburn take on Sheffield United, who could rotate players ahead of the play-offs. Meanwhile, Millwall face the unenviable task of travelling to Burnley at Turf Moor as they look to end the Clarets’ 10-match unbeaten streak after a sensational end to the campaign.