By election live: Labour takes momentous wins in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire - full results

It's worth bearing in mind that the Tories could win both seats and still be in serious trouble. Nadine Dorries had a majority of 24,000 votes in 2019, while Chris Pincher had a majority of more than 19,000, and yet Labour are in with a chance of winning both.

Each victory would be a by-election record for Labour in terms of swing and the size of the majority.

The Conservatives could hold onto both seats, despite a swing of 15% plus to Sir Keir Starmer's party - which would lead to a landslide Labour victory in a general election. As always the devil is in the detail.

Whispers coming in from Staffordshire are that Labour believe they are in with a chance of taking Tamworth, which would be a big result for the party.

Tamworth has traditionally been seen as a general election bell weather, going Conservative in 2010, although it is thought the seat has moved right in recent years.

Labour is helped by the fact it is the only challenger to the Tories in Tamworth, whereas in Mid Bedfordshire it is a three way race. The parties here appear to be in the dark, although Laura McConnell from Scottish Labour has just tweeted her party is "very confident on the ground" about taking Mid Bedfordshire.

The polling company Survation has just released the results of its latest survey in Mid Bedfordshire, which was carried out last month. Polls here have been rare, but it puts Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 29%. The Lib Dems are a bit further back on 22%.

The poll also looks at which party voters were trying to keep out, with 68% saying they wanted to stop the Tories while 25% said they wanted to stop Labour.

I am in Tamworth and the count is now underway for the town’s by-election with the result expected in the next few hours. The hall is bustling with party candidates and local councillors.

A Labour source said the party is “in with a shot” to win the by-election even though it would be “unusual” if the party did. He said even though the area is mainly a Conservative area, Labour are “in with a chance” and the odds are tight.

The Tories have held the Tamworth seat since 2010, and their candidate Andrew Cooper will be hoping to continue their hold on the area. While Labour will be hoping to repeat its 1996 win in the Tamworth which happened a year before they went on to win a landslide at the 1997 general election.

Turnout in Mid Bedfordshire is 44%, which is fairly average for a by-election - especially with the inclement weather. The staff here are still saying they're on track for a declaration between 1.20am and 2am.

UKIP’s candidate, Robert Bilcliffe, told NationalWorld that he doesn’t think UKIP will win Tamworth’s by-election, claiming that the Reform Party “turning up” in the area has had an affect. Another UKIP party member also said a lot of their voters are turning to the Reform Party instead.

Bilcliffe added that he has “never understood why people keep voting for Labour or Conservative because they seem to have let the British people down on many occasions”. He said that he is particularly “disappointed” with the former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair for two reasons.

He told NationalWorld: “I’m very disappointed with Tony Blair on two occasions - one that he went to war on a lie and the other that he wanted to change the mere fabric of Britain with multiculturalism. It hasn’t worked, it has failed because there are paralleled communities”.

One of the first things I was told when I arrived at the Mid Bedfordshire count was that Labour's support in the towns of this rural constituency had increased. Apparently volunteers were doing a great job of getting out the vote today - which is ensuring registered supporters get down to the polling station.

Now the Lib Dems are saying they think Labour might have won, which would be an astonishing victory. Remember Nadine Dorries had a majority of almost 25,000 at the 2019 general election.

Labour however aren't saying anything, and it still feels as if a lot of people are unsure which way this race is going to go.

Labour’s candidate, Sarah Edwards, has arrived at Tamworth’s by-election. She recieved a cheer as she walked through the hall.

The Conservative candidate, Andrew Cooper, is expected to arrive imminently. The results are expected to be announced in the next hour.

The actual count in Mid Bedfordshire is in a very small room, so very few people are allowed in at a time - which makes judging the state of play difficult. So journalists are really relying on candidates for their information.

And like the Lib Dems, Flitwick independent candidate Gareth Mackey thinks Labour have just pipped the Tories. He told NationalWorld: "I think Labour have done it, if not it's very close between them and the Conservatives."

Labour figures however are still keeping their cards close to their chest.

Labour has won in Tamworth. Sarah Edwards has overturned the Tories' 19,634 majority in a seismic result.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said: “This is a phenomenal result that shows Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.

“To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.”

Lab gain from Conservative

The Tamworth by-election is largest majority in terms of number of voters Labour has overturned, the News Agents' Lewis Goodall reports. It is the second biggest swing, the biggest swing ever could be coming later in the night in Mid Bedfordshire.

Labour's Alistair Strathern has won Mid Bedfordshire overturning Nadine Dorries' huge majority from 2019.

Strathern said his victory in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election had “made history” and sent a “resounding message”.

Giving his victory speech, the newest Labour MP said: “Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change.

“Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”

Labour’s victories at Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth mean that swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years – a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.

Five of the eight swings have occurred in the past four months: Selby & Ainsty (23.7 points from Conservatives to Labour) and Somerton & Frome (29.0 points from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats) in July; Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20.4 points from the SNP to Labour) earlier this month, and now Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points) and Tamworth (23.9 points), both from Conservatives to Labour.

The others were Tiverton & Honiton (29.9 points) in June 2022, North Shropshire (34.1 points) in December 2021, and Chesham & Amersham (25.2 points) in June 2021, all from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.

Sarah Edwards, Labour’s candidate who has won the seat at Tamworth’s by-election, said the win is a “historic victory”. She said that the party “didn’t know” what they were “going to expect” at the count on Thursday night (19 October) and the result is “testament to the work that has gone on”.

She told NationalWorld that Labour’s win in Tamworth “sends a really strong message to the country” and shows how “people want change and are fed up of 13 years of the Conservatives.” The Tories had previously held the seat in Tamworth since 2010.