Bristol Rovers predicted League One finish compared to Derby County, Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday

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The stats experts have given their take on how they see the closing months of the season going for Joey Barton and his players.

The final stages of a long and eventful League One season are rapidly approaching as Joey Barton and his Bristol Rovers players look to round off their first season back in the third tier in fine fashion.

Rovers currently sit in mid-table, ten points clear of the relegation zone, but also 19 points adrift of the play-off places, and that sums up a season of mixed fortunes at the Memorial Stadium. Given the dramatic nature of last season’s promotion from League Two, a season of solidifying their position at a higher level can be viewed as a success and foundations will be put in place to build upon the progress made this season.

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But how could the final League One table look when the final whistle is blown on the season in May? BristolWorld has utilised the services of stats experts FiveThirtyEight to show their projected final positions for all 24 clubs.


PRIDE: Sheffield Wednesday manager Darren MoorePRIDE: Sheffield Wednesday manager Darren Moore
PRIDE: Sheffield Wednesday manager Darren Moore

As it stands, Sheffield Wednesday’s 4-2 defeat at Barnsley on Tuesday night, coupled with Plymouth Argyle’s 2-0 win at struggling Accrington Stanley, means it is the Pilgrims that head into the weekend sat on top of the League One table.

However, the projected end-of-season table sees the two sides swap positions once again, with the Owls predicted to rack up an exact century of points to leave themselves five points clear of Steven Schumacher’s side when the final whistle blows on a long season.

In the play-offs!

First Division champions in the 1961–62 seasonFirst Division champions in the 1961–62 season
First Division champions in the 1961–62 season

A quartet of former Premier League clubs currently occupy the play-off places with Ipswich Town, Barnsley, Derby County and Bolton Wanderers sat inside the top six. The projected final table has suggested all four clubs will remain in those positions, albeit with slight changes.

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Barnsley are predicted to end the regular season in third place after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion by two points and they would face a two-legged play-off semi-final with Derby County, who are expected to finish in sixth place with 64 points. Ipswich and Bolton are projected to finish the season in third and fourth place respectively.

Just missing out!

Three more clubs are predicted to come close to a top six place and miss out on a chance to secure promotion into the Championship. Wycombe are projected to end the season on 76 points, three points shy of Derby’s final total, with Peterborough United and Portsmouth also falling short of the play-off places.

Mid-table safety

There are eight clubs predicted to end the season in the comfort of mid-table, with a safe gap to the relegation zone, but also falling well short of the play-off spots - and this is where we find Joey Barton and his Bristol Rovers side.

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Currently sat on 45 points after Saturday’s 2-0 home defeat against Portsmouth, Rovers are predicted to pick up a further eight points from their remaining nine games and end the regular season in 16th place in the League One table. Sitting above them in the table are Port Vale, Exeter City, Lincoln City, Fleetwood Town, Charlton Athletic and Shrewsbury, who are all to reach the half-century of points, along with Cheltenham Town and Burton Albion.

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Looking nervously over their shoulders!

Two clubs are projected to narrowly miss out on reaching the 50-point mark and will be left sweating on their League One status on the final day of the season. They are Oxford United and MK Dons, who are predicted to significantly add to their current points totals with respective 11 and 10-point hauls - but will only just remain in the third tier.


It will be of no surprise to find Forest Green Rovers are projected to end the season sat at the foot of the League One table. Duncan Ferguson’s side are currently on just 23 points and the predicted table suggests they will pick up just a further six points between now and the end of the season.

27 days27 days
27 days | Getty Images

The other three relegation spots are also predicted to be filled by the clubs currently occupying bottom four places, with Accrington Stanley, Morecambe and Cambridge United projected to fall through the trapdoor into League Two with 42 points, 40 points and 38 points respectively.

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