Bristol City's play-off fate decided in intriguing final Championship table forecast
Data analysts Opta have predicted the final Championship table - but will Bristol City make the top six?
The Championship season is now two-thirds of the way through, and Bristol City are one of several teams set to take part in a tense battle for the play-off places over the last three months of the campaign – and data experts Opta have predicted whether the Robins will make it into the top six.
As it stands, Liam Manning’s side are ninth in the table, two points outside the play-offs, and there are just five points separating fifth-placed Blackburn Rovers with Millwall all the way down in 14th. The Championship table is incredibly tight once more.
Opta have generated a predicted final table based on the most likely outcome of every team’s remaining matches – and it’s bad news for Robins fans, as the data reckons that they will most likely finish in ninth place as well, with their expected final points tally of 65 liable to leave them two or three short of a play-off place.
Opta claim that the odds on Bristol City making the top six are 17.3%, slightly better than a one in six chance. They are estimated to have no chance whatsoever at automatic promotion, perhaps unsurprising given the significant lead the current top four have over the chasing pack.
Predicted Championship table still gives Robins a chance
Opta’s model believes that the most likely final table will have Leeds United and Burnley going back to the Premier League automatically, with Sheffield United, Sunderland, West Bromwich Albion and Middlesbrough making the play-offs.
Norwich City and Blackburn are also likely to finish ahead of Bristol City, according to the prediction, and they too are most likely to finish one or two points shy of a shot at the top flight.
The Robins’ 17.3% chance of finishing in the top six lags well behind the teams expected to make the play-offs, with West Brom given a 49.6% chance, Middlesbrough 37.6%, Norwich 30.6% and Blackburn 21.2% respectively.
But while the odds are stacked against Liam Manning and his team, they are still predicted to finish within three points of the top six, meaning that City need to win just one game ‘unexpectedly’ and they could be right in the mix.
Lack of transfer activity could hinder Bristol City
One variable the prediction can’t account for is the impact that new signings might have on the way the teams perform – but that won’t create a problem when working out Bristol City’s odds, as the Robins didn’t make any signings across the January transfer window.
The day before the transfer deadline, the club released a statement explaining that the decision not to make any moves in the winter market was due to the club being over budget for the season and have more players than anticipated in the squad, with some players who they had expected to leave remaining at Ashton Gate. The club stayed true to their word on Monday, with no new players signed despite some late departures.
All of the clubs ahead of the Robins in the race for a play-off place added some fresh faces to their squads, with West Brom’s loan signing of Adam Armstong among the biggest deals made on Monday’s transfer deadline day. City manager Manning, meanwhile, will hope that his current squad have what it takes to upset the odds and battle their way to Wembley on 26 May.